Market Downturn: Why Is MKR Bucking the Trend with an Upsurge?
原文标题:The Bull Case for $MKR $SKY
原文作者:Taiki Maeda,HFAResearch CEO
原文编译:ChatGPT
编者按:作者认为,$MKR(现为$SKY)在 2025 年第一季度/第二季度有望表现优异,主要得益于每月 3000 万美元的回购计划、DAI/USDS 供应量接近历史高点、以及即将启动的 SPK farming 带来的增长动力。尽管重新品牌未获市场青睐,但其基本面强劲,加上美国稳定币法案的潜在利好,未来几个月前景积极。
以下为原文内容(为便于阅读理解,原内容有所整编):
在这篇文章中,我将阐述为何$MKR 将在 2025 年第一季度/第二季度的风险调整后表现超过大多数加密资产。
MKR 看涨理由如下:
· 每月 3000 万美元的回购计划已启动
· 尽管情绪低迷,DAI/USDS 供应量接近历史最高点
· SPK farming 即将开始(资金印钞机)
注:MKR 已重新品牌为$SKY,因此它们实际上是同一代币。DAI 也重新品牌为 USDS。
回购回来了
没错,回购回来了。这次以加速的速度进行。

在 2 月 24 日执行的提案后,额外的 5500 万美元 USDS 已被 earmarked 用于回购。回购将按每月 3000 万美元的速度进行,或大约每天 100 万美元。

实际上,这个回购可能会更多,因为协议本身是盈利的(每年净收入 1.25 亿美元,即每月 1042 万美元),如下面所示。

考虑到$MKR 当前价格为 1600 美元,3000 万美元的买压将意味着协议将回购约 1.9% 的总供应量。为了给大家一些对比,@MicroStrategy 在过去 4.5 年内购买了比特币供应量的 2%。我认为这个买压及其速度尚未被市场定价。
我们将 2024 年 MKR 表现不佳的主要原因归结于重新品牌,这一举措并未受到市场的欢迎。然而,USDS 实际上已经在增长,最低时曾跌至 45 亿美元。「情绪低迷,基本面向上」为一枚轻仓的币提供了很好的成长叙事机会(有些人可能会称之为被讨厌的反弹)。

SPK 代币上线
Spark,一个拥有 30 亿美元 TVL 的借贷市场及资产管理平台,从 MakerDAO 分拆出来。本文暗示,SPK farming 和 TGE 将在不久后进行,这将为回购火力提供更多助力。

SPK 将是一个「公平发售/农场」代币,你只能通过质押 USDS 或 SKY 来进行 farming(查看经济学细节)。这意味着质押 USDS/SKY 来 farming 的需求可能会增加,从而提高稳定币供应量、收入和利润等指标。
50% 的$SPK 激励将在前两年内分发。如果我们假设其完全稀释估值(FDV)为 10 亿美元,那么有 5 亿美元的价值将分配给 SKY/USDS 质押者,这将为本地代币提供质押收益,并补贴 USDS 的增长,进而推动未来更多的回购。
其他的 SubDAOs/Stars(如 Solana Star、RWA Star 等)也将陆续上线,这将进一步推动未来的回购。
稳定币法案
对于那些没有关注美国监管动态的朋友们,稳定币法案《美国稳定币指导与国家创新建立法案》(GENIUS)旨在为美国支付稳定币的发行和监管创建一个联邦框架。

目前尚不清楚这个法案将惠及哪些玩家(除了 Circle),但如果我们看到 GENIUS 法案形成更强的叙事并引发更多头条新闻,我们认为 MKR 可能会稳步成为稳定币相关项目中的流动性交易者之一,从而为这一叙事提供敞口。虽然这比其他催化剂要弱,但它代表了市场参与者可能愿意增加 MKR 仓位的另一个理由;不难看出,这枚币的需求端可能正在逐渐积累,利好看涨方。
结论
Sky 的重新品牌虽有些失败,但这一点可能已经反映在价格中(从 2024 年 4 月到 2025 年 2 月的下行趋势)。展望未来,基于本文所阐述的理由,我们有充分的理由相信接下来的几个月对 MKR 来说会是积极的。最后,尽管样本量较小,但我们经常看到 MKR 在不确定或震荡的市场环境中表现良好,而这种市场前景在可预见的未来最为可能。
「原文链接」
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